Policy & Politics: October Recap
It’s an wild-record-breaking update! AS OF 11/4/2026
The blue wave crested in Arizona as it has across the country. While there are still more than 300,000 ballots to count in Maricopa County, democrats will definitely take control of the House, the Senate and the Governor’s office for the first time since 1965. The size of the democrat majorities shown below may narrow a bit, but there is no question they will have strong majorities in both chambers.
Current political makeup of Arizona:
Governor: Katie Hobbs - race called
Secretary of State: Adrian Fontes
Attorney General: Kris Mayes
Congressional Districts: 6 (R) - 3 (D)
Arizona State Senate: 17 (R) -13 (D)
House of Representatives: 33 (R) – 27 (D)
Democrats in Arizona have gained a majority lead in many congressional and legislative races. The Governor, SOS and AG offices are likely to remain Democratic. The one race that once polled as too close is the AG’s race— Mayes won that previously by 280 votes but that is no longer likely as the gap is now too large.
Congressional Districts have Democrats leading 8 of the 9 seats. Paul Gosar (R- CD 9) is the only safe seat to remain Republican. Mark Lamb (R-CD5 has pulled ahead. Abe Hamadeh (R-CD8) has also pulled ahead.
The legislature is likely to flip Democratic as well. The Republican-led House is losing 9 seats to Democrats projecting it will be 36-24. And Republican-led Senate is losing 8 seats to Democrats projecting it will be 21-9.
HOUSE PROJECTIONS
An interesting House race shows Matt Gress could still pull through in LD4. But the most interesting is that Congressman Andy Bigg’s hard right red district has a Democrat leading with the incumbent losing at third place.
District | Democratic Candidates Leading / Positioned: | Notes |
D-4 | Tammy Caputi + Karen Gresham | Clear path to flip both or one seat |
D-13 | Rockee Armstrong + Jacob Weinberg | Widely marked as flipped R→D. Open seats. |
D-14 | Mary Rose (and Democratic pairing) | Flip path indicated in results |
D-27 | Deborah Howard | Leading against Republican incumbent |
D-29 | Christine Scianna | Flip path against Republican incumbent - CLOSE RACE |
SENATE PROJECTIONS
There are a few very interesting races in the Senate. Five races here have incumbents losing. Perhaps the most interesting race here is that Congressman Andy Biggs’ daughter Mylie Biggs is running for the Senate and she is losing — in a heavily red district that once adored her dad, Andy Biggs. Incumbent TJ Shope is also losing and he was the next projected Senate President who actually has/d the votes to become the next Senate President.
District | Democratic Candidate Leading | Republican Opponent | Approximate Early Margin | Notes |
D-2 | Amelia Gallitano | Shawnna Bolick (inc.) | ~17 pts | Strong lead |
D-4 | Aaron Lieberman | Carine Werner (inc.) | ~12 pts | Key Phoenix/Scottsdale area |
D-13 | Kristie O’Brien | Julie Willoughby | ~14 pts | Already widely marked as flipped |
D-14 | Stephanie Walsh | Mylie Biggs | ~10 pts | Open seat |
D-16 | Elaine Aldrete | T.J. Shope (inc.) | ~5 pts | Closer race |
D-17 | Edgar Soto | Christopher King | ~15 pts | Open seat |
D-27 | Kyle Clayton | Kevin Payne (inc.) | ~10 pts | Competitive district |
D-29 | Eric Stafford | Janae Shamp (inc.) NOW LEADING | Extremely close — highest risk of reversal |
This update is as of 11/4/2026 - We will get another udate soon
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